The next two years

Let's start by summarizing where I am. On hiatus from triathlon, I'm a runner again. I haven't been in a pool since August, and ridden anything but the commuter since July. But I've logged lots of miles on foot. And as a runner, here are the PBs:
5k - 19:10 (2010)
10k - 39:40 (2010)
HM - 1:27:04 (2010)
M - 3:29:12 (2008)

The focus now is to bring down all of those numbers. In a big way.

Let's start at the end, since that's a counter-intuitive place to start. In January 2013, I plan on lining up for the WDW Marathon again. And this time, I plan on running sub-2:50. Obviously, I have a lot of work to do if I plan to take 40 minutes (~1 minute per kilometer) off my best. Luckily, I have two years. There will have to be a few stepping stones on my way to a result like this. Travelling back in time, it's my intention to take another stab at the marathon next spring, probably February. By that point, I hope to be in sub-2:55 shape. I believe that would be a great confidence boost that I could pick up another 5 minutes in the following year.

Before I tackle marathon preparation, I have to get faster at short course racing. Go fast, then go far. So right before that cycle, I will have completed a 10k cycle, culminating in September/October. Previous to that, I'll do a 5k cycle for races in April/May.

Using the McMillan Calculator, a 2:55 marathon has the following equivalent results:
5k - 17:57
10k - 37:17
HM - 1:22:59

You'll note that these are WAY below what I can currently run. That's why I have the following targets for 2011:
April/May, 5k - 18:20 (3:40/km)
Sept/Oct, 10k - 37:30 (3:45/km)

These should set me up properly for the marathon block. I don't believe I've fully tapped my potential yet. I may be getting a bit older, but my run training has been so sporadic for the last twenty years, and never with particularly high mileage, which seems to get the best response. This year will have lots of 70-95k weeks when training the shorter distances, and 85-110k weeks for the marathon. Provided I stay healthy (and I think all those miles will actually help towards that), I believe I can be mid-front pack runner. I'll never be a 33 minute 10k/2:30 marathon runner, but I can shoot for mid-35/2:4X.

The work is planned. Now I need to work the plan. The legs feed the wolf.